统计研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (5): 75-87.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2018.05.008

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货币政策加剧城市房价的冷热不均吗

张清源等   

  • 出版日期:2018-05-25 发布日期:2018-05-25

Whether the Monetary Policy Exacerbates the Structural Differentiation of Urban Housing Prices

Zhang Qingyuan et al.   

  • Online:2018-05-25 Published:2018-05-25

摘要: 本文创新性地运用交互效应动态面板模型重新检验了货币政策对我国295个城市房价的异质性效应及其传导机制。研究发现,货币供给量增长对我国不同城市房价存在显著的异质性效应,货币供给量是加剧我国城市房价结构性分化的主要外部诱因,而利率调整发挥的作用并不明显。机制分析则表明,货币政策冲击主要通过供给侧的土地价格这一传导渠道对房价产生影响。本文研究认为,央行在制定货币政策,尤其是运用数量型工具时应将城市住房价格考虑在内,政府应切实推动土地市场改革,才有可能真正解决我国房地产市场的结构性分化难题。

关键词: 货币政策, 房价, 异质性, 结构分化

Abstract: This paper analyzes the heterogeneity effects and transmission mechanism of monetary policy on 295 cities’ housing prices by creatively adopting the dynamic panel model using interaction effects. It is found that the increases of money supply has an obvious heterogeneous effect on housing prices in different cities in China, and money supply is the main external incentive that exacerbates the structural differentiation of urban housing prices in China, but the role of interest rate adjustment is not so obvious. The analysis on transmission mechanism shows that the impact of monetary policy on housing prices is mainly exerted through the land prices on the supply side of market. This paper concludes show that the central bank should take urban housing prices into consideration when formulating the monetary policy, particularly when using the quantitative tools. Moreover, the government should advocate the reform on land market, otherwise it would not be possible to solve the conundrum of structural differentiation of the real estate market in China.

Key words: Monetary Policy, Housing Prices, Heterogeneity, Structural Differentiation