统计研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (1): 53-64.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2018.01.006

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全球价值链视角下的中美贸易隐含碳研究

潘安   

  • 出版日期:2018-01-25 发布日期:2018-01-25

Embodied Carbon in China-US Trade from Perspective of Global Value Chain

Pan An   

  • Online:2018-01-25 Published:2018-01-25

摘要: 本文在总贸易核算框架下,采用WIOD提供数据计算与分析了在GVC视角下中美贸易隐含碳排放量,并讨论了GVC分工对贸易隐含碳排放的影响。研究结果表明,在GVC视角下中美贸易的出口隐含碳排放主要来自出口国内碳排放,进口国在消费者责任原则下承担主要的碳排放责任;中国在与美国贸易中主要处于碳排放转出地位,但碳贸易条件有所改善;参与GVC分工是导致中国对美国出口隐含碳排放出现增长的主要原因之一,但也是中国调整出口隐含碳排放结构的重要途径之一。与GVC视角下的计算结果相比,基于MRIO模型的计算结果高估了中国出口隐含碳、碳排放转移规模以及碳贸易条件指数的实际水平。本文的创新在于将总贸易核算法应用到对外贸易隐含碳的研究领域,改进了传统对外贸易隐含碳的计算方法,有助于更为全面地分析贸易隐含碳排放特征及其碳排放责任。

关键词: 中美贸易, 全球价值链, 总贸易核算法, 隐含碳, 垂直专业化

Abstract: Based on the gross trade accounting method and data from WIOD, this paper estimates the embodied carbon in China-US trade from the perspective of GVC and analyzes the effect of GVC division on embodied carbon. The results show that embodied carbon in China-US trade is mainly from the domestic carbon emissions of exporting country, and the importing country should take the main responsibility for carbon emissions from the principle of consumer responsibility. In China-US trade, China is in the status of net carbon transfer and has improved the carbon terms of trade. Besides, participating in GVC division is one of the main reasons leading to the growth of embodied carbon in China’s export to US, and it is also one of the important ways to optimize the structure of embodied carbon emissions in China’s export. Compared with results from the perspective of GVC, the estimation results from MRIO model overestimate the embodied carbon, carbon transfer and carbon terms of trade in China. The innovation of this paper is to apply the gross trade accounting method to the research of embodied carbon in foreign trade, which will improve the traditional estimate methods of embodied carbon and help to analyze the features of embodied carbon and its responsibilities more comprehensively.

Key words: China-US Trade, Global Value Chain, Gross Trade Accounting Method, Embodied Carbon, Vertical Specialization