统计研究

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存在领导者的自组织群组评价技术及应用

张崇辉等   

  • 出版日期:2017-08-15 发布日期:2017-08-25

Evaluation Technique and Its Application to Self-organized Groups with Leaders

Zhang Chonghui et al.   

  • Online:2017-08-15 Published:2017-08-25

摘要: 针对传统群组评价中存在的主客观约束问题和领导者的“超权威”效应,本文提出了一种存在领导者的自组织群组评价技术。首先,群组专家进行选择性评价,以克服客体不同质对主体造成的认知困境;其次,根据评价的信度与效度修正专家意见,并通过自回归函数进行迭代,使其与领导者意见达成一致,以避免因时间限制或专家不愿修改意见而对评价活动产生影响。另外,根据加权后的一致性意见进行评价,能兼顾领导者的权威性与群组成员表达的充分性;最后,给出了应用实例,结果表明方法简单、可操作,更有利于大规模群组评价活动的开展。

关键词: 领导者, 自组织, 群组评价, 自回归

Abstract: As to the subjective and objective constraints and excessive authority of leaders in traditional group evaluation, this paper proposes an evaluation technique on a self-organized group with leaders. Firstly, group experts make selective evaluation to overcome cognitive difficulties caused by heterogeneous objects. Secondly, the experts’ opinions are modified based on the evaluation reliability and validity, and then make them consistent with leaders’ opinions by iteration of autoregressive functions, in order to avoid the impacts of time limitation and unwillingness of opinion modification by the experts on the group evaluation. In addition, the authority of leaders and the sufficient expression by group members can be well reflected based on the weighted evaluation of the consistent opinions. At the end, a numerical example shows the operational simplicity of the proposed method, which is more applicable to a large-scale group evaluation activity.

Key words: Leaders, Self-organized, Group Evaluation, Autoregression