关键词: 产能过剩, 产能利用率, 随机前沿方法, 固定效应

Abstract:

To accurately measure the degree of excess capacity and judging its causes which is the precondition to scientifically governing excess capacity. This paper uses fixed effect stochastic frontier approach to measure the capacity utilization of manufacturing industries from 1980 to 2014, and then uses dynamic panel data and system GMM method to investigate the influential factors of excess capacity. Before the global financial crisis in 2008, the overcapacity of Chinese manufacturing is general, locality and periodic. But the crisis of excess capacity from 2008 shows the characteristics of complexity, overall and even long-term, which has spread from traditional industries to the emerging industry. There are three categories of factors that promote excess capacity of Chinese manufacturing industries. And it didn’t work that alleviating structural contradictions of supply relationship through innovation, so that the problem of excess capacity of manufacturing sector can’t be resolved fundamentally. Correcting institutional distortions, stimulating enterprises to innovate from the supply side and inspiring enterprises to effectively invest are the fundamental way to alleviate structural contradictions of supply relationship and resolve the problem of excess capacity of Chinese manufacturing industries.

Key words: Excess Capacity, Capacity Utilization, Stochastic Frontier, Fixed Effects.