统计研究 ›› 2017, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (11): 79-85.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2017.11.007

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我国中等收入群体的界定标准与测度

刘渝琳 许新哲   

  • 出版日期:2017-11-15 发布日期:2017-11-25

The Definition and Measurement of Chinese Middle-income Groups

Liu Yulin & Xu Xinzhe   

  • Online:2017-11-15 Published:2017-11-25

摘要: 伴随着经济发展水平的不断提高,我国已进入中高收入国家行列。中等收入群体的扩大对中等收入国家跨越“中等收入陷阱”有重要影响。尽管对于中等收入群体的界定与测度有不少成果,但目前在学界仍然存在着广泛的争议。本研究在借鉴与比较已有文献界定中等收入群体的标准与测度方法的基础上,发现以居民家庭人均可任意支配收入作为界定中等收入群体的指标,更能适应我国地区之间差异巨大的现实情况。因此,本文基于中国家庭追踪调查项目(CFPS)2010、2012、2014的调查结果,利用核密度估计的方法拟合了我国居民家庭人均可任意支配收入分布曲线,测算了我国2010年,2012年与2014年的中等收入群体比重,其结果可以为我国改善收入分配格局,扩大中等收入群体相关政策的制定提供参考。

关键词: 中等收入群体, 标准与规模, 核密度估计

Abstract: With the continuous improvement of China's economic, China has entered the ranks of high-income countries. The expansion of the middle-income group has an important influence on middle-income countries across “Middle Income Trap”, although the definition of the middle-income group and measurement has many achievements, but there still has controversy. In this paper, we compared with the literature’s definition of middle income group standards and measurement basis, and found that per capita disposable income of households as a standard in defining the Chinese middle-income group can adapt to the reality of the huge differences between the areas of our country. Based on Chinese family tracking survey (CFPS) data of 2010, 2012, 2014, this paper using the method of kernel density estimation to fit China's households per capita disposable income distribution curve, calculate the proportion of the medium income group in 2010, 2012 and 2014, the results can be used for our country to improve the distribution pattern of income and expanding middle-income groups and provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of relevant policies.

Key words: Middle-income Group, Standard and Scale, Kernel Density Estimation