统计研究 ›› 2017, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (11): 56-68.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2017.11.005

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丝绸之路经济带贸易潜力及影响因素研究

刁莉等   

  • 出版日期:2017-11-15 发布日期:2017-11-25

Export Potential of Silk Road Economic Belt and Its Determinants: An Empirical Research Based on Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

Diao Li Luo Pei Hu Juan   

  • Online:2017-11-15 Published:2017-11-25

摘要: 本文基于对中国与丝绸之路经济带沿线国家的贸易互补性和竞争性分析,利用丝绸之路经济带上的19个国家2002-2015年14年的相关数据,构建时变随机前沿引力模型和贸易非效率模型研究我国对丝绸之路沿线国家的出口潜力和出口效率,并分析了导致贸易非效率的制度性影响因素。模型的回归结果说明,贸易潜力的决定因素有进出口国家的人均GDP、人口总量、地理距离、共同边界以及进口国是否为内陆国家。对贸易非效率的研究表明,生效的区域贸易协定、良好的基础设施、较高的贸易自由度和较高货币自由度等四个因素都能显著降低贸易非效率,促进出口增长。进一步地,本文将经济带沿线国家划归为三个区域,即核心区、重要区和拓展区,并发现中国对拓展区出口效率最高、对核心区出口效率其次,对重要区出口效率最低。我国应在努力发展国内经济的同时,积极引导或参与区域经贸合作尤其是与丝绸之路沿线国家开展合作,加强政府间沟通交流,促进沿线自由贸易发展。

关键词: 丝绸之路经济带, 出口潜力, 引力模型, 随机前沿

Abstract: Based on the analysis of the trade competitiveness and complementarity between China and the countries along the Silk Road, building the time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model and the trade inefficiency model by applying the data of 19 countries along the belt from 2002 to 2015, it will study the potential and efficiency of the export from China to the countries along the road and analyze the institutional factors that lead to the inefficiency of trade. The regression results of the model indicate that the determinants of trade potential are per capita GDP, population, geographical distance, common border, and whether the importing country is a landlocked country. Studies of inefficiencies in trade have shown that four factors, such as effective regional trade agreements, excellent infrastructure, higher trade freedoms and higher degrees of currency freedom, can significantly reduce trade inefficiencies and promote export growth. Furthermore, this paper divides the countries along the Silk Road into three regions: the core area, the important area and the development area, and finds that China has the highest export efficiency to the expansion area but the lowest export efficiency to the important area. Based on the above research results, at the same time of striving to develop the domestic economy, China should actively develop or participate in regional economic and trade cooperation, especially with the countries along the Silk Road, and strengthen intergovernmental communication and promote the development of free trade along the Silk Road.

Key words: Silk Road Economic Belt, Export Potential, Gravity Model, Stochastic Frontier