统计研究 ›› 2017, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (11): 15-29.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2017.11.002

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资产流动性、融资约束与经济波动

刘红忠 傅家范   

  • 出版日期:2017-11-15 发布日期:2017-11-25

Asset liquidity, Financial Constraint and Economic Fluctuations

Liu Hongzhong & Fu Jiafan   

  • Online:2017-11-15 Published:2017-11-25

摘要: 随着资产证券化的推进和直接融资比重的提升,经济主体面临的资产流动性约束将不断放松。然而国内文献鲜有从资产流动性的角度,研究内外部冲击对中国宏观经济波动的影响。本文构建了一个同时包含信贷约束和资产流动性约束的NK-DSGE模型,分析资产流动性通过影响企业融资能力,进而影响经济波动的动态效应及作用机制;并利用2003Q1~2016Q3中国非金融上市公司季度现金流量表数据,进行模型刻画和参数校准。研究发现:(1)当出现正向生产力、资产价格冲击时,产出、消费与投资扩张,并且该扩张效应与稳态资产流动性水平正相关;(2)当出现负向资产流动性冲击时,产出、消费和投资受到抑制;(3)金融冲击可以解释约21%的产出波动与89%的投资波动,随着资产流动性的改善,金融冲击造成的影响趋于减弱。适当利用资产证券化盘活存量资产,增强经营性资产流动性,有助于缓解当前企业面临的融资难、高杠杆等问题。

关键词: 资产流动性, 资产证券化, 融资约束, 经济波动

Abstract: With the development of asset securitization and the increased proportion of direct financing, liquidity constraints that agents faced will be relaxed. However, there is little relevant literature about the effect of shocks on the Chinese macroeconomic fluctuations from the perspective of asset liquidity. This paper builds a NK-DSGE model which incorporates collateral and liquidity constraint, in order to explore the dynamic effects and the mechanism of asset liquidity constraints on Chinese economic fluctuations, and make use of 2003Q1~2016Q3 quarterly data of the cash flow statement of non-financial companies, to construct the model and do the calibration. We conclude that: (1) positive productivity and asset price shock cause growth of output, consumption and investment, and this effect will be strengthened by higher asset liquidity level at steady state; (2) a negative asset liquidity shock will trigger negative effect on output, consumption and investment; (3) About 21% of the variance of output and 89% of the variance of investment can be explained by financial shocks, and its negative effect will be diminished with the improvement of asset liquidity. Therefore we conclude that asset securitization would revitalize the stock of assets and enhance the liquidity of operational assets, which could contribute to solve enterprises’ problem of financing difficulties and high leverage.

Key words: Asset Liquidity, Securitization, Financial Constraint, Economic Fluctuations