关键词: 持久收入假说, 房价收入比, 状态空间模型

Abstract:

The housing price to income ratio is an important index to reflect the ability to paying for the house. For the purpose that the pressure of affording the house can be more accurately reflected in the long term, in this paper, we estimate housing price to income ratio according to the data of 35 middle and large cities in China from the year 2002 to 2013 under the permanent income hypothesis, then determine its reasonable upper limit by scenario analysis and analyze the characteristic. The study shows that: (i) the reasonable upper limit of housing price to income ratio is 7.6, however, the average of housing price to income ratio of 35 cities is 9.2, housing price to income ratio of 28 cites has been over the upper limit, and the highest ratio is 14.9 for Beijing; (ii) the housing price to income ratio are higher in more developed cities, consumers need to take on greater pressure, for the time trend, the gap between first tier and second third tier cities is widening; (iii)For the geographical distribution, housing price to income ratio in Chinese eastern, central, northeast and western large cities is from high to low in descending order; (iv) the difference is about 10% between housing price to disposable income ratio and housing price to permanent income ratio. The Government should take effective measures to continue to limit housing prices and relieve pressure of affording houses.

Key words: Permanent Income Hypothesis, Housing Price to Income Ratio, State Space Model