• 论文 •

### 居民对房价的预期如何影响房价变动

• 出版日期:2016-05-15 发布日期:2016-05-10

### How Does the Residents’ Expected Price Affect Housing Price Change

Sun Weizeng &Zheng Siqi

• Online:2016-05-15 Published:2016-05-10

Abstract: Many studies have shown that housing price volatility can hardly be explained by economic fundamentals. The market participants’ price expectations are considered to play an important role in affecting housing price volatility; in the case of inelastic land supply, the impact of residents are more significant. This paper empirically tests the economic mechanism of expectation’s impact on housing price change with the quarterly micro household survey data during 2012-2013 in seven major cities in China. The results show that, the residents’ expectation on housing market can significantly affect their demand for home purchasing, and can affect the price volatility. Specifically, when the residents’ expectation level increases one percentage point, the city’s housing price growth rate increases 1.04 percent. The study effectively solves the endogeneity problem by the joint analysis of microscopic and macroscopic data, and the conclusion is important To understand housing price volatility and the validity of macro regulatory tools.