关键词: 企业信用风险, 网络结构, logistic模型

Abstract: With the rapid development of computer and the Internet, especially in the era of big data, some enterprises has accumulated a lot about their operation and finance data. Since the data is numerous and complicated, if we use the traditional logistic regression to build up the enterprise credit risk, the performance usually isn’t good. In this paper, we propose network-logistic model based on considering the network relationship among variables, via penalized method to conduct variable selection and parameters estimation simultaneously. Simulation results show that network-logistic model performs better than other compared methods. Finally, we apply it to forecast enterprise’s credit risk, under considering the network relationship between financial indicators, select significant variables and build up a suitable credit risk forecasting model for Chinese enterprises.

Key words: Enterprise's Credit Risk, Network, Logistic Model