关键词: 相关多样化, 无关多样化, 经济增长, 经济稳定, 熵指标, 空间面板数据模型

Abstract: Taking the panel data from 2003 to 2014 of all cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei as an sample, this thesis puts the industrial diversification into related and unrelated diversification by using Entropy Index, and investigates the industrial association characteristics of these cities; then the impact of related and unrelated diversification on the economic development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is tested empirically through establishing spatial panel data model based on the transmission mechanism analysis. Theoretical analysis shows that we should not generally say the variety of industrial correlation or uncorrelation is favorable or unfavorable to the economic growth，but we should analyze them by combining with external environment they are being in. The empirical result shows that during the period of the sample the level of all these cities’ unrelated diversification is higher than the related one，but the level of all these cities’ related diversification showed an upward trend. And the unrelated diversification of these cities is clearly beneficial to the stability of regional economy. However, the related diversification which takes iron and steel industry as main industry has obvious unfavorable impact on the economic growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. The results of empirical analysis are consistent with theoretical expectations and the reality of excess capacity. Therefore, the article provides corresponding policies and advises.

Key words: Related variety, Unrelated variety, Economic growth, Economic stability, Entropy, Spatial panel data model