关键词: 连续性动态分布方法, 碳排放, 收敛

Abstract: This paper uses the continuous dynamic distribution approach to study the dynamic evolution and long-term trend of carbon emission intensity and per capita carbon emissions, basing on the panel data of 286 cities and prefecture-level cities from 2002 to 2011 in China. It shows that both carbon dioxide emission intensity and per capita dioxide emissions are unimodal distributions during the study period, while from the trend, they will converge to a few “clubs” which are not determined by regional characters. To avoid the possible polarization of club convergence, the government should pay more attention to the cities with carbon dioxide emission intensity value of 4.05, 4.7 times to yearly average or per capita carbon dioxide emissions of 3.9, 5.0 times to yearly average.

Key words: continuous distribution dynamic approach, carbon dioxide emissions, convergence