统计研究

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

污染排放增长存在内生收敛吗

张可   

  • 出版日期:2015-06-15 发布日期:2015-06-25

Does the Convergence of Pollution Emissions Growth Exist

Zhang Ke   

  • Online:2015-06-15 Published:2015-06-25

摘要: 从理论和实证层面上考察了污染排放增长的收敛性及污染排放增长与经济增长之间的关系。在新古典增长理论的基础上论证了污染排放的预防效应和规模效应,并考虑了污染排放增长和经济增长的空间溢出,运用空间计量模型验证了这两种效应。基于2002-2012年中国285个地级及以上城市的经验分析表明:①污染排放增长存在绝对收敛和规模效应;②污染排放增长具有明显的空间溢出效应,污染排放增长与周边地区显著正相关;③地区之间的污染排放增长存在着明显的策略性互动;④污染排放增长与地区的期初条件密切相关。本文认为污染排放收敛和规模效应是实现经济与环境协调发展的重要机制,为区域间污染联合治理提供了一个新的理论视角,以市场化为基础的区域经济协同应成为污染联合治理的主导力量,区域间的经济协同可改善环境质量。

关键词: 污染;收敛, 经济增长, 空间溢出

Abstract: We investigate the convergence of pollution emission growth and the relationship between pollution growth and the economic growth both in theoretical and empirical level. On the basis of neo-classical growth theory, we demonstrate the prevention effect and scale effect of pollution emission. Using spatial econometric model to verify the two effects under perspective of space spillover, the empirical analysis based on the data of 285 Chinese cities from 2002-2012 shows that absolute convergence of pollution emission growth and scale effect exist. Pollution emission growth has obvious spatial spillover effect and is significantly positively related to the growth of surrounding areas. There is a significant strategic interaction effect between regional pollution emission growth. Pollution emission growth is closely related to the initial conditions. We argues that the pollution emission convergence and scale effect is an important mechanism for the coordinated development between economy and environment. Our research provides a new theoretical perspective for joint pollution abatement between regions, the cooperation of economic development between regions based on marketization should become the dominant force in joint pollution abatement and regional economic coordination and cooperation can improve environmental quality.

Key words: Pollution, Convergence, Economic Growth, Spatial Spillover