统计研究

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地方资源禀赋、制度环境与地方债发行

佘国满等   

  • 出版日期:2015-05-15 发布日期:2015-05-21

Endowment, Institution and Local Government Debt Issue

She Guoman etal   

  • Online:2015-05-15 Published:2015-05-21

摘要: 我国地方政府债务水平的高速增长引发了各界的警惕,而地方政府的发债动机、发债能力更是饱受质疑。本文利用2004-2012年我国地级市的发债数据,对政府发债动机及发债能力进行研究。我们发现,地方政府的投资冲动越强,地方政府发行债券的可能性越高;城市的财政赤字情况越严重,则地方政府发行债券的机会越低,而城市的经济规模、经济增速则对城市发债能力产生正面影响。在此基础上,我们进一步研究制度环境对城市发债行为的影响。研究表明,金融成熟度对城市特征产生了“放大”效应,发债双方的关系更加遵从“市场规则”;而“关系成本”的存在则打破了“市场规则”对地方政府的约束。我们的研究深化了对地方政府发债行为及地方政府债务风险的理解。

关键词: 地方债, 资源禀赋, 金融成熟度, 关系成本

Abstract: The expansion of the local government debt in China has raised serious doubts about the incentive and the solvency of the local officials. Through the empirical research from cities in China from 2004 to 2012, this paper indicates that the endowment of the city is an important element that affects the local officials’ incentive and ability to issue bonds, which we call “Market Rules”. Specially, the governments’ ability of debt issuing becomes lower when facing the more serious financial deficit. Meanwhile, the probability of debt issuing will increase if the governments’ impulsion to invest is stronger and the same is true of the cities with higher GDP and economy growth rate. Furthermore, we find that the “Market Rules” appears to be more significant in the cities with higher financial maturity degree. Contrarily, the existence of “relationship payment” has broken the constraints of “Market Rules” on local government. Our research enriches the understanding of local government debt.

Key words: Local Government Debt, Endowment, Financial Maturity Degree, Relationship Payment