统计研究

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劳动力转移与粮食安全

刘亮等   

  • 出版日期:2014-09-15 发布日期:2014-10-14

Labor Transition and Food Security

Liu Liang et al.   

  • Online:2014-09-15 Published:2014-10-14

摘要: 中国快速城市化和工业化导致的大量农村劳动力向城市转移引起了决策者和学术界对粮食安全问题的担忧,但本文利用县级和农户面板数据研究发现:首先,即使到2010年,农村劳动力转移对粮食总产量的影响并不大,对主产区的粮食总产量的影响更小,这背后的机制是主产区农户会通过更多地增加其他农业生产要素来替代劳动力投入的减少;其次,劳动力转移对主产区和非主产区农户的粮食生产行为的影响以及对主要粮食作物和次要粮食作物的影响都有所不同。总之,农村劳动力迁移尚未严重威胁到中国的粮食安全,当然,政府应针对粮食主产区和非主产区实施不同的政策以保持粮食总产量的稳定,特别是要鼓励主产区的耕地流转以降低劳动力迁移的负面影响。

关键词: 粮食安全, 劳动力转移, 主产区和非主产区

Abstract: In the rapid process of urbanization and industrialization, a large number of rural labor transfer into cities. Will it bring a major impact on China's food security? By using county-level and farmers-level panel data, we find that: Even by 2010, the rural labor transition had only slightly affected the total grain output, and the impact on the main producing areas’ grain output is smaller. This is because farmers in the main producing areas increased other agricultural production elements to replace the reduction in labor input. In addition, the labor transition’s effecting mechanism on grain production behaviors is also different between main producing areas and non-producing areas. In short, the rural labor migration has not been a serious threat to China's food security. Of course, the government should take a different intervention policy for the major grain producing areas and non-producing areas to maintain the stability of grain output, especially to encourage the farmland circulation in main producing areas to reduce negative impacts brought by the rural labor migration.

Key words: Food Security, Labor Transition, Main Producing Areas and Non - producing Areas