关键词: 异质性, 反事实, 再分配效应, 充分信息评估指标

Abstract: Based on analysis framework for Heckman and Raj, this paper builds a counterfactual microscopic evaluation model of pension system reformation, using the administrative data from Suzhou Industrial Park. Because of the heterogeneity, the study introduces quantile method to evaluate pension reform about welfare, using the wage distribution instead of average wage. This study constructs mean regression and quantile regression model to estimate the sufficient evaluation indicator to assess the redistribution of income effect. The evaluation method integrates actuarial model with economic structure model and expands the traditional counterfactual evaluation methods. The study also provides a paradigm that a government how to make a decision about social security based on administrative data in practice.

Key words: Heterogeneity, Counterfactual, Income Redistribution Effect, Sufficient Evaluation Indicator