统计研究

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国际油价波动对中国经济影响的一般均衡分析

魏巍贤等   

  • 出版日期:2014-08-15 发布日期:2014-08-14

General Equilibrium Analysis for Impact of International Oil Price Shocks on Chinese Economy

Wei Weixian et al.   

  • Online:2014-08-15 Published:2014-08-14

摘要: 本文构建动态可计算一般均衡模型来定量研究国际石油价格上涨对我国经济的影响。研究结果表明,国际石油价格上升不利于我国实际GDP、投资、居民收入和进出口等主要经济指标;技术进步是抵消国际油价上升的重要工具。最后,本文根据数量结果提出了一些政策建议。

关键词: 第一HJ距离, Beta表达式, 最大定价误, 油价波动, 可计算一般均衡模型, 中国经济

Abstract: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is constructed to evaluate the effect of price shocks in international crude oil market on the Chinese economy. The results indicate that international crude oil price has negative effects on Chinese real GDP, investment, consumption, import and export, amongst a range of economic indices. Technological advances have positive effects on fighting back the risk of oil price shocks. These results would be valuable reference information for policy makers.

Key words: The First HJ Distance, Beta Representation, Maximal Pricing Error, International Oil Price Shock, CGE Model, Chinese Economy