关键词: 房地产价格, 宏观经济因素 , VAR模型, 长短期分解

Abstract: In this paper, we have studied short-term and long-term impact of macroeconomic factors on real estate price. First, buyers, real estate business, and central bank were put into a unified model, and we have established a theoretical model about factors that influence housing price. Second, improved short-term and long-term decomposition of traditional vector autoregression model, we have studied short-term and long-term impact of interest rates, land prices and other macroeconomic variables—inflation, exchange rate and economic growth rate on housing price. The results show that interest rate rise has a long-term negative effect on housing price, the tightening of monetary policy can play an important in restraining housing price rise excessively, and in the short term it can aggravate the volatility of housing price; Land price promotes housing price in the long term, compared with other economic variables, the price of land has little impact on house price, and shows a lower conduction velocity. In addition, the rise in price causing buyers to expect interest rates rise has a negative impact on housing price in the short run. But, rising price highlights the preserve value of real estate, so it can stimulate housing price rise in the long run. Renminbi appreciation has a positive effect on housing price rise in the short and long run. Improving of economic growth rate can hinder demand of speculating and investing real estate to some extent.

Key words: Real Estate Price, Macroeconomic Factors, VAR Model, Long-term and Short-term Decomposition