统计研究

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股价跳跃与宏观信息发布

赵华 秦可佶   

  • 出版日期:2014-04-15 发布日期:2014-04-02

Jumps in Stock Prices and Macro Information Release

Hua Zhao & Keji Qin   

  • Online:2014-04-15 Published:2014-04-02

摘要: 本文采用非参数跳跃识别方法首次对中国股市高频跳跃性及其与宏观信息冲击的关系进行研究,结果表明,股市上午开盘时跳跃次数明显大于其他交易时间,午后开盘时的跳跃次数处于一天中的较低水平,但跳跃幅度是一天中的峰值。并通过Logit模型研究了定期发布的宏观信息对中国股市价格跳跃的影响,研究得出,宏观信息的意外冲击对股价跳跃具有显著的影响,股价对宏观信息冲击的调整速度大多为10到15分钟,但需要50分钟才能反应完全。不同方向信息冲击对价格跳跃具有非对称性影响,宏观经济信息的正向冲击会显著降低跳跃概率,而负向冲击会增加跳跃概率。

关键词: 意外冲击, 信息发布, 价格跳跃

Abstract: The paper uses non-parametric method to indentify high-frequency jumps in China’s stock market and studies the relationship between price jumps and surprises of macro news, the results show that the jumps in the morning opening is significantly greater than the other trading hours, and the jumps in the afternoon opening is the lower, but the jump size is the peak. The paper studies the impact of macro news on jumps in stock prices of China’s stock market with Logit model, we find that the surprises for macro news impact significantly the jumps in stock prices, and the speeds of the price adjustment for macro news are mostly 10-15 minutes. Furthermore, the different direction impacts of news on jumps in prices are asymmetric, and the positive impacts of macro news significantly reduce jump probability, but the negative impacts increase jump probability.

Key words: Surprise Shock, Information Release, Jump in Price