关键词: DSGE模型, 财政政策模拟, 贝叶斯估计, 冲击响应

Abstract: Simulation of the economic response to changes in fiscal policy in advance is an important technique to examine the effects of fiscal policy. This paper improved foreign classic model, introduced the system fiscal rules and built fiscal policy DSGE models. Basing on the effective tax rate estimation and parameters bayesian estimation, it gave the example of simulation and test for fiscal policy, which found the conclusions that simulation the shocks of tax rate was the effect way of the tax reform, capital tax rate was an effect tool of economic structure adjustment, while increasing the government expenditures was weak for driving economics grow. It could also provide reference for DSGE model research in China.

Key words: DSGE Model, Fiscal Policy Simulation, Bayesian Estimation, Shock Response