统计研究

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国全要素生产率的再测度与分解

张少华 蒋伟杰   

  • 出版日期:2014-03-15 发布日期:2014-03-10

A Re-estimate and Decomposing of the Total Factor Productivity of China

Shaohua Zhang & Weijie Jiang   

  • Online:2014-03-15 Published:2014-03-10

摘要: 本文首次采用基于投入冗余的全要素生产率指数(Input Slack-based Total Factor Productivity Index,ISP)来重新测度和分解中国1985-2009年的全要素生产率(Total Factor Productivity ,TFP),该指数优势在于可以进一步测度与分解投入要素的生产率。研究表明:(1)国家层面,TFP增长解释了中国经济增长35.08%的份额。相比技术效率,技术进步是导致TFP变化的主要原因,生产前沿面年均向上移动3.53%;相比资本生产率,劳动生产率是驱动中国TFP上升的主要因素,中国的经济增长充分发挥了自身的比较优势。(2)区域层面,TFP差异是导致东、中、西部经济发展水平差距拉大的主要因素;但是无论是东部、中部还是西部,TFP的提升均体现在资本生产率与劳动生产率的技术变化方面。(3)省际层面,全部省份在样本期内都实现了TFP提升,2005年之后逐渐有更多的省份成为“创新者”,而省际之间追赶效应表现得并不是十分明显;TFP、资本生产率以及劳动生产率在省际之间呈现出“强者恒强、弱者恒弱”的动态趋势。研究对我国今后经济增长挖潜、区域协调发展以及省际发展与赶超等问题,富有启发意义。

关键词: 全要素生产率, 资本生产率, 劳动生产率, 技术变化, 技术效率变化

Abstract: This paper firstly uses an input slack-based total-factor productivity index-ISP to re-measure and re-decompose China’s total-factor productivity. Firstly, Our study shows that China’s TFP has a feature of low level fluctuating during the sample period from national aspect. The increase of TFP mainly results from technical progress rather efficiency changes. In China, labor productivity is the primary impetus to promote TFP. Secondly, TFP difference is a major factor in the eastern, central and western levels of economic development gap, But whether it is the eastern, central and western regions, TFP enhancement are reflected in the technical changes of capital productivity and labor productivity. Thirdly, From the provincial aspect, all the provinces in the sample period to achieve the TFP to enhance, more provinces after 2005 gradually become the "innovation"; TFP in the inter-provincial showing a "strong Always the Winner,weak constant weak" dynamic trend. This paper has a significant enlightenment in the issues of sustainable development of China, coordinated development of regional economy and Inter-provincial development and catch-ups.

Key words: Total Factor Productivity, Capital Productivity, Labor Productivity, Technical Change, Technical Efficiency Change