关键词: 通货膨胀区域差异, 动态因子模型, 政策协调

Abstract: Theoretically, the effective monetary policy should make regions in one country does not exist or exist only minor inflation differentials. However, statistics data shows that there is a big regional inflation differential in China. This paper applies the dynamic factor model to decompose regional inflation differentials into common factors that are due to national factors and regional factors which affected by their own regions respective. Then we use the ARDL model and state-space model to make a further analysis of the main factors affecting the common factor and the regional factors. The empirical analysis finds that the regional inflation differentials stems mainly from the common factor, and the common factor is inversely proportional with the rising the level of national economic development, while is proportional with the loose monetary policy; differences in consumption structure is an important reason of regional factors. Therefore, our policy suggestions are using differentiated monetary policy tools, implementing fiscal policy and industrial policy coordination strategy which can effectively reduce regional disparities in income and consumption to achieve the goals of price stability.

Key words: Regional Inflation Differentials, Dynamic Factor Model, Policy Coordination