统计研究

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养老保险体制改革

邹铁钉 叶航   

  • 出版日期:2014-02-15 发布日期:2014-02-08

Reforming Pensions

Tieding Zou & Hang Ye   

  • Online:2014-02-15 Published:2014-02-08

摘要: 本文构建了一个两期迭代模型分析了养老改革在运行效率和分配公平之间的两难抉择,模型分析过程中特别考虑了人力资本的差异性对运行效率和分配公平的影响。文章还利用中国在1978-2011年间的数据,对模型结果和中国的养老改革实践进行了经验分析。研究结果显示:1)统账结合制应对老龄化的能力要高于现收现付制而低于基金制,而其投资收益率和分配公平性则要高于基金制而低于现收现付制;2)劳动生产率的快速上升和贫富差距的不断扩大,要求中国的统账结合制养老保险体系在当前及今后一段时期内仍当以统筹账户为主,政府在改革中提高统筹比率突显分配公平的做法是符合国情的正确选择。3)无论是提高制度的运行效率,还是增强制度的分配公平性,都应当重视劳动生产率的提高,而人力资本的数量及质量是影响劳动生产率高低的关键因素,所以要不断加大对人力资本的投入,普及和发展对国民的职业教育与学历教育。

关键词: 养老保险, 效率, 公平, 养老改革

Abstract: This paper uses an OLG model to analysis a dilemma based on efficiency and fairness, and then gives a numerical simulation for China’s reform practice in pension system with Chinese data. Results showed that :1)Compared with efficiency and fair distribution, partial full-funded System was better than full-funded system, and worse than pay-as-you-go system.2)Based on the situation of China ,it is reasonable to choose and keep partial full-funded system. Labor production is the key factor for improving efficiency and fair distribution, human capital need to improve investment, and then the development and popularization of school education and vocational education should be done.

Key words: Pension, Efficiency, Fairness, Pension Reform