关键词: 房价上涨, 挤出效应, 家庭类型, 动态面板模型, 系统广义矩阵方法

Abstract: Based on the double attributes of housing, It finds that the impact of housing price on consumption would be different because of the residents’ different emphases on housing property. If they mainly focus on the investment property, then ultimately influence would be crowding out effect, that is the housing price rise curbs consumption. According to the differences of different types residents’ consumption and focus on housing properties, we build a dynamic panel model for empirical analysis. The results show that the housing price rise is obvious crowding out effect in China, and the regional differences are also obvious. The further research shows that the crowding out effect is universal, which directly effects the consumption expenditure and can act on other influencing factors of consumption to indirectly inhibit consumption expenditure. Therefore, to slow the crowding out effect and enhance the pull effect of consumption on economy, the government should not only pay attention to the housing consumption attribute and reasonable regulation the housing price rise, but also carry out a series of related measures, such as narrowing the income gap, reducing consumption expenditure uncertainty and trying to get rid of the land finance.

Key words: Housing Price Rise, The Crowding out Effect, The Type of Family, Dynamic Panel Model, The System of Generalized Matrix Method