关键词: 财政政策, 私人投资, 非线性

Abstract: The paper studies the non-linear effects of fiscal policy on private investment with Markov Switching Models and Probit method. The results show that the non-linear effect of fiscal policy on private investment is significant. Different components of fiscal expenditure have different effects: within the first regime, expenditure on infrastructure construction, R&D expenditure and expenditure on education can crowd-in private investment, while government consumption and expenditure on social security can crowd-out private investment; within the second regime, the crowd-in effects of expenditure on infrastructure construction, R&D expenditure and expenditure on education become insignificant, while the crowd-out effects of government consumption and expenditure on social security become larger. The effect of tax on private investment is non-linear. Expect effects, credibility effects and labor market effects can provide explanations for the non-linear effects of fiscal policy on private investment, among which, expect effects dominate the others.

Key words: Fiscal Policy, Private Investment, Non-linear