统计研究

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限购政策对房价的调控有效吗

邓柏峻等   

  • 出版日期:2014-11-15 发布日期:2014-11-15

Does the House Purchase Quota Policy Have the Regulation Effect on Housing Prices: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Difference-in-difference Method

Deng Baijun et al.   

  • Online:2014-11-15 Published:2014-11-15

摘要: 本文利用38个颁布了限购政策的城市和17个未颁布限购政策的城市2008年第1季度至2013年第2季度的数据,在使用倾向得分对样本进行匹配的基础上对匹配后的样本进行倍差法估计,探讨了房地产限购政策对房价的调控效果。实证结果表明,限购政策具有良好的调控效果,有效地抑制了房价的上涨;限购政策具有一定的时滞性,随着时间的推移其效果越来越明显。为了进一步研究限购政策对“房价过高,上涨过快”的城市是否具有额外的调控作用,本文使用双重倍差法进行分析,发现限购政策对“房价上涨过快”的城市具有额外的调控效果,实现了抑制过度投机的政策初衷;但限购政策在“房价过高”城市的治理上并没有体现出额外的抑制作用。

关键词: 房价调控, 限购政策, 倍差法, 倾向得分匹配, 双重倍差法

Abstract: This paper examines the effect of the house purchase quota policy on housing prices using the data of 38 cities that promulgated the regulation policy and 17 cities that did not issue between 2008 Q1 and 2013 Q2. This paper first uses the propensity score to match the sample, and then applies the difference-in-difference (DID) method to estimate the matched sample. The result shows that the house purchase quota policy has significant regulation effect, where the rise in housing prices is effectively inhibited. However, the effect of the house purchase quota policy has a certain degree of lag, which becomes more evident as time goes by. Further, this paper adopts the difference-in-difference-in-difference (DDD) method in estimation to undergo analysis. It is found that, compared to cities with low growth rate in housing prices, the house purchase quota policy has extra regulatory effect on cities with high growth rate, thereby effectively restraining the housing prices of these cities with high growth rate and helping to realize the original intention of the policy to curb the excessive speculation. Nevertheless, there is no such additional regulatory effect on cities with high housing prices, in comparison with cities with low housing prices.

Key words: Housing Price Control, Quantity Limit Policy, Difference-in-Difference Method, Propensity Score Matching, Difference-in-Difference-in-Difference Method