关键词: 社会融资规模, 住房价格, 有向无环图

Abstract: By a directed acyclic graph (DAG) technology and prediction variance decomposition method based on DAG, the paper explores the effectiveness of three policy tools on regulation of the real estate market, including the scale of social financing, real interest rates and the money supply. The results show that China's real estate price continues to rise mainly due to its own rising inertia beyond anticipation in recent years. In terms of effects of policy regulation, social financing scale and real interest rate have more obvious effects on the real estate market regulation, and the impact of money supply on real estate price is very limited. This paper argues that the scale of social financing can be used as a policy variable for housing price regulation, which provides a more effective policy tool for government regulation of housing price.

Key words: Scale of Social Financing, Housing Price, Directed Acyclic Graph