• 论文 •

### 货币供给与PPI的动态响应机制和结构性差异

• 出版日期:2013-08-15 发布日期:2013-08-05

### Monetary Supply, Dynamics and Asynchronism of PPI

Yang Jisheng & Feng Yan

• Online:2013-08-15 Published:2013-08-05

Abstract: PPI is predictable on economic trend, which should be paid more attention in making monetary policies. Based on 34 industries of China, we established a panel structural VAR model with interactive effect to empirically analyze monetary supply, dynamics and asynchronism of PPI. The results indicated that the influence of money supply shock on PPI of different industries differs a lot, varying from 0.02%～74%. Heavy chemical industries and upstream industries are more sensitive about money supply shock. Given money environment, the main source of fluctuation in PPI is the impulsion itself, and the contribution is up to 70%. However, the contribution of fixed assets investment volatility to PPI fluctuation is very small, only 2%. And therefore, it’s unreasonable to ascribe PPI fluctuation mainly to large scale fixed assets investment. We suggest that Chinese central bank should attaches great importance to the management of industrial products price fluctuation expectation based on the dynamics and asynchronism of PPI.