关键词: 城市发展潜力, 集聚经济, 新经济地理, 潜力模型

Abstract: Based on the spatial distribution of factor supply and market demand, this paper constructs urban supply-demand potential indexes, estimates the potentials of 284 cities, and analyzes the economic scales of these cities. The study finds that the supply-demand potentials substantially differ across regions, and the cities with higher potentials are contiguously distributed; the supply-demand potentials gradually extent from megacities and city groups to cities along major traffic corridors and further to cities in more extensive areas; the spatial pattern of China’s urban system is significantly correlated to the supply-demand potentials. The analysis also reveals that agglomeration diseconomies have appeared in megacities while unrealized potentials exist in many smaller cities. This research provides new statistical measures and the findings provide references to develop regional economic policy，choose cities with potentials, and promote regional urbanization. Urban Development Potential; Agglomeration Economies; New Economic Geography; Potential Model

Key words: Urban Development Potential, Agglomeration Economies, New Economic Geography, Potential Model