统计研究 ›› 2013, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (12): 77-82.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

老龄化背景下我国城镇居民储蓄行为研究

刘雯 杭斌   

  • 出版日期:2013-12-15 发布日期:2013-11-28

China's Urban Household Saving Behavior in the Population Aging Period

Wen Liu & Wu Hang   

  • Online:2013-12-15 Published:2013-11-28

摘要: 近年来,我国城镇居民储蓄率一直居高不下,国内外学者已从诸多角度深入研究了影响中国高储蓄率的因素,但大多局限在相关经济研究层面,体制的研究相对匮乏。本文基于缓冲储备储蓄理论,对养老金“多轨制”进行量化,利用连续追踪的微观数据,建立平衡面板模型作实证分析。结果表明:(1)社会老龄化程度的加深会提高居民储蓄率;(2)我国尚待完善的养老保险制度在一定程度上可以解释居民的高储蓄率现象,主要体现在两个方面:①我国养老金“多轨制”的存在,使得机关事业单位人员与企业人员之间养老金福利待遇相差甚大;②我国养老金覆盖率低,很多居民在退休后基本无生活保障。

关键词: 缓冲储备储蓄, 老龄化, 养老保险制度, 微观平衡面板

Abstract: China's urban household savings rate has been high in recent years. Foreign and domestic scholars are analyzing the factors that affect China high saving rate from many angles, but most of them are limited to the economic perspective, no study on institutional structure perspective. This paper quantifies the pension multi-track and uses micro-data of continuous tracking to construct balanced panel model for empirical analysis, based on the buffer-stock save theory. The result shows that: (1) Deeping of social aging will increase the household saving rate; (2) imperfect pension insurance system of China, partly, can explain the high household saving rate: ①The exits of the pension multi-track lead to large difference of pension benefits between administrative business units and enterprises; ②Low coverage of pension insurance make many households have no living safeguard.

Key words: Buffer-stock Saving, Aging, Pension Insurance System, Micro Balance Panel