统计研究 ›› 2013, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (12): 48-55.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

生产要素使用效率与中国宏观经济波动

刘宗明   

  • 出版日期:2013-12-15 发布日期:2013-11-28

Efficiency of Factor Utilization and China's Macroeconomic Fluctuations

Zongming Liu   

  • Online:2013-12-15 Published:2013-11-28

摘要: 生产要素使用效率不仅在企业微观层面上对企业成长有重要意义,而且在宏观层面也具有特殊的理论意义,中国政府正在提倡的“转方式”以及建立“资源节约型社会”也与此密切相关。本文将要素使用效率以内生的方式引入动态一般均衡模型,它不仅进入了总量生产函数,而且可以被经济个体内生的选择。我们利用贝叶斯极大似然方法估计了模型的结构参数,基于贝叶斯估计的后验让步比率显示,实际经济更倾向于选择具有要素使用效率动态的模型,说明它更好的解释了中国数据。进一步的研究表明:(1)要素使用效率机制增强了外生中性技术冲击产出效应的量度和持久性;(2)劳动使用效率的调整难度要高于资本使用效率的调整难度,而劳动使用效率的波动性也远低于资本使用效率的波动性;(3)当忽略要素使用效率时,中性技术冲击的波动性被严重夸大,同时也会导致全要素生产率(TFP)本身的误测,TFP本身会被高估45%左右。而且波动性分解和反事实模拟显示,此时中性技术冲击对产出波动的解释力也会被夸大;(4)我们通过历史模拟识别出的内生要素使用效率对产出波动有较强的解释力,特别是对“十一五”规划时期产出的历史贡献尤为显著。这些研究结果都表明,要素使用效率机制对于正确理解中国宏观经济动态是不可或缺的。

关键词: 要素使用效率, 后验让步比率, 反事实模拟

Abstract: The efficiency of factor utilization (EFU) not only has important significance for the enterprise growth from microeconomic perspective, but also has special theoretical significance from macroeconomic perspective. This paper introduces the efficiency of factor utilization into a DSGE model. The EFU not only enters the aggregate production function, but also can be endogenously chosen by rational agents. We estimated the structural parameters with Bayesian MLE method. The marginal data density shows that the real economy prefers to choose the model embedded the efficiency of factor utilization, which reflects relatively better explanation power of china data. Further research shows as following: (1) EFU mechanism increases the magnitude and persistence of output effect of neutral technology shocks; (2) The adjustment of labor utilization efficiency is more difficult than that of capital utilization, but labor utilization is much less volatile than capital utilization; (3) Without EFU, the volatility of TFP shocks will be highly over-stated, and TFP itself will be incorrectly over-stated by forty-five percent; (4) According to the historical simulations, we identify that the endogenous factors of efficiency has strong explanatory power on output wave, especially contributed to output in “the eleventh five-year plan” period. These results show that EFU mechanism is a non-negligible factor to correctly understand china economy dynamics.

Key words: Efficiency of Factor Utilization, Posterior Odds Ratio, Counterfactual Simulation