统计研究 ›› 2013, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (11): 68-76.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于频域的汇率非对称传递研究

刘啟仁   

  • 出版日期:2013-11-15 发布日期:2013-11-04

The Research base for Exchange Rate Asymmetric Pass-through of the Frequency Domain

Liu Qiren   

  • Online:2013-11-15 Published:2013-11-04

摘要: 出口厂商根据汇率历史波动频率预期汇率升值或贬值的持续性,进而采取不同的调价策略,这造成汇率对出口价格的非对称传递。本文选取2005年7月至2012年6月中国等7国对美国出口价格等面板数据,采用“移动窗口单向带通滤波”技术将汇率分解为19种相互正交的频率分量,并频域估计出不同频率的汇率波动对出口价格的传递系数,检验该非对称传递性。结果表明:显著存在汇率传递的频率区间集中在[0,1.4],即汇率持续升值或贬值累积超过4.5个月会导致显著的汇率传递,而汇率短暂的波动并不引起显著传递效应,汇率波动频率对出口价格存在显著非对称传递性。因此,人民币应增强汇率弹性以减少持续升值的累积,从而降低其对厂商定价的不利冲击。

关键词: 汇率传递, 波动频率, 出口价格, 频域

Abstract: This paper proposes a new analysis of exchange rate pass-through in frequency domain. Using 2005M7-2012M6 bilateral data between the United States and China, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Mexico, United Kingdom, we present evidence of asymmetric exchange rate pass-through in different fluctuation frequency. We apply “moving window one-sided band pass filters” to partial the exchange rate series into 19 orthogonal frequency components. Through time-domain and frequency-domain estimation, we find significant asymmetric exchange rate pass-through at different frequencies, which indicates that transiently appreciation or depreciation bring no significant exchange rate pass-through, however, lasting appreciation or depreciation causes large and significant pass-through. So China should increase the exchange rate volatility to cultivate the switch of exchange rate flexible floating model from lasting appreciation model after the exchange rate reform in 2005.

Key words: Exchange Rate Pass-through, Fluctuation Frequency, Export Price, Frequency Domain