关键词: 养老保险, 个人替代率, 平均替代率, 随机模拟, 工资中位数

Abstract: Pension replacement rate measuring the pension level is defined as the ratio of pension income to working income. This indicator has been widely computed for the assessment of adequacy of pension systems and international comparisons. In some literature, the indicator of average replacement rate is adopted to measure the average level of replacement rate in China. These studies show that the pension replacement rate has been decreasing to below the international warning level or target level, and thus propose to improve the benefit accordingly. This paper examines the concept, scope and computing method of alternative pension replacement rates systematically. Based on stochastic simulation, the distribution of replacement rate for different types of people is described and the probability of achieving the target replacement rate is given. The misunderstanding of average replacement rate is clarified. By applying the method of factor decomposition, factors influencing average replacement rate are investigated and deviation of this indicator in measuring the average level of replacement rate is analyzed. Moreover, this paper indicates that median replacement rate is more appropriate in measuring the average level of replacement rate.

Key words: Pension System, Individual Replacement Rate, Average Replacement Rate, Stochastic Simulation, Median Wage