关键词: 地方政府债务, 转移系数, KMV模型, 违约概率

Abstract: The political and economic systems in our country which is different from western counterparts determine the close “parent-child” relationship between central and local governments in China. Therefore, it is often exaggerated the local government debt risk when neglected the central government “paternalism” in evaluation of the local government debt risk. This article refines the central government “paternalism” into the transferability characteristics of local government debt, and puts forward corresponding modified KMV model through the introducing local government debt transferability factors. This paper empirically analyzes default risk of local government debt using the modified KMV model under the premise of given 1% and 5% of default probability the transfer rates. The results show that there is no the economy default risk of local government debt in essentially, but the local government debt has a certain degree of moral risk. In this regard, this article puts forward the relevant policy recommendations based on the stress test analysis.

Key words: Local Government Debt, Transfer Coefficient, KMV Model, Default Probability