统计研究 ›› 2012, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (7): 31-36.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于CPI分项目价格指数的中国核心通货膨胀估计及政策选择研究

赵昕东 汤丹   

  • 出版日期:2012-07-15 发布日期:2012-07-13

Research on the Estimation of China’s Core Inflation Based on the Sub-item Price Indices of CPI and the Policy Selection

Zhao Xindong & Tang Dan   

  • Online:2012-07-15 Published:2012-07-13

摘要: 核心通货膨胀是观测到的通货膨胀中长期的、持续的成分。核心通货膨胀对经济形势的判断与宏观经济政策的制定有着重要的意义。本文使用CPI分项目价格指数建立动态因子指数(DFI)模型估计了2001年1月至2011年4月中国的核心通货膨胀。结果显示,我们估计的核心通货膨胀反映了通货膨胀的趋势,能够很好地反映货币供给的变化,对未来5-19个月的CPI亦有较好的预测能力。

关键词: 核心通货膨胀, DFI模型, CPI分项目价格指数

Abstract: Core inflation is the long-run, persistent component of the observed inflation, and it is very important to the judgment of economic situation and adoption of the macroeconomic policies. In this paper we establishes a Dynamic Factor Index Mode using the sub-item price indices of CPI to estimate China’s core inflation from January 2001 to April 2011. The results show that the estimated core inflation reflects the change of money supply and represents the trend of inflation very well, and also forecasts the CPI of future 15-19 months well. .

Key words: Core Inflation, DFI Model, Sub-item Price Indices of CPI