统计研究 ›› 2012, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (5): 23-33.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

货币国际化对国内宏观经济的影响

王晓燕等   

  • 出版日期:2012-05-15 发布日期:2012-05-03

The Impact of Currency Internationalization to Domestic Economy

Wang Xiaoyan et al.   

  • Online:2012-05-15 Published:2012-05-03

摘要: 本文利用新开放经济宏观经济学方法,构建了货币国际化对宏观经济影响的理论模型,从理论上分析了货币国际化对宏观经济短期和长期的影响。理论研究表明,货币国际化具有以下影响:(1)无论在短期还是长期,都将促使本国货币升值,但汇率未出现超调现象;(2)短期内刺激本国消费,长期内抑制本国消费;(3)短期内产出减少,长期内产出增加;(4)短期内改善贸易条件,长期内使贸易条件恶化;(5)无论短期还是长期,都将改善本国居民福利水平。在此基础上,基于结构VAR模型,利用美元经验数据实证分析了美元国际化对美国宏观经济的影响,实证结果表明:经验分析与理论研究结果高度一致。上述研究结论为人民币国际化提供了若干启示。

关键词: 宏观经济, 货币国际化, 人民币国际化, 新开放经济宏观经济学

Abstract: Based on the model of new open economy macroeconomics (NOEM), this paper analyses the short-term and long-term impact of currency internationalization to domestic economy. We find that currency internationalization have the following effects: (1)The home currency will appreciate in both short term and long term, no exchange rate overshooting appears; (2) Domestic consumption is stimulated in short term but inhibited in long term; (3) The level of domestic output reduces in short term but increases in long term; (4) Terms of trade improves in short term but worsen in long term; (5) Welfare improves in both short term and long term. After that, a SVAR model is built on the NOEM model. By the data of U.S.Dollar, We analyze the impact of U.S. dollar internationalization to U.S economy. There is a high consistent between empirical analysis and theoretical analysis. By these conclusions, we point out some possible problem must be highly concerned in the RMB internationalization.

Key words: Macroeconomic, Currency Internationalization, RMB Internationalization, New Open Economy Macroeconomics