关键词: 通货膨胀, 通胀预期, 菲利普斯曲线, 合成指数

Abstract: This paper analyses the effects of aggregate demand factors, monetary factors and production cost factors on China’s inflation. We calculate the dynamic Philips curve and argue that the effect of the output gap on price tends to decline, implying that the pulling effect of the aggregate demand decreases. This paper selects monetary factors and purchasing price of goods and, by the NBER method, calculates the composite index. Then, we introduce them, together with the indicator reflecting wage cost, into the expanded Philips curve and the results show that the pushing effects of the monetary factors and production costs are significant. Thus, this paper argues that, under today’s circumstance of tight monetary policy in China, the determined reasons of the current high inflation are the rises of purchasing price of goods especially the wage cost.

Key words: Inflation, Inflation Expectation, Philips Curve, Composite Index