统计研究 ›› 2011, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (9): 49-56.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

PPI与CPI关系及我国通货膨胀治理

桂文林 韩兆洲   

  • 出版日期:2011-09-15 发布日期:2011-09-19

The Inflation Control and Relation between CPI and PPI in China

Gui Wenlin & Han Zhaozhou   

  • Online:2011-09-15 Published:2011-09-19

摘要: PPI和CPI关系是宏观经济研究热点问题之一。通过TS季节调整模型和HP滤波方法对1993年1月-2010年7月定基PPI和CPI进行分解,得到趋势、季节、不规则和循环因素。发现两者的趋势、季节和不规则因素间的传导和“倒挂”不显著,增强了用循环因素研究两者关系的科学性。研究发现,(1)两者间传导和“倒挂”交替出现,分别经历两个周期,均在第二周期波谷处逆转。传导和“倒挂”时隔有明显周期。(2)2003年前PPI向CPI传导的原因为投资膨胀、卖方市场等。2003年后PPI与CPI“倒挂”的原因除投资膨胀外,有效需求不足,买方市场,粮食和住房价格上涨等。(3)针对当前通货膨胀特点,提出有别于要素价格管制和货币紧缩政策,可解决物价的长期深层矛盾。

关键词: PPI、PPI;传导、倒挂, 季节调整模型;通货膨胀

Abstract: The relationship between PPI and CPI is one of the hot issues in Macroeconomic research. Using TS seasonal adjustment model, fixed base PPI and CPI in Jan 1993-Jul 2010 are decomposed into trend, seasonal, irregular and cyclical factors. The trend, seasonal and irregular factors in the conduction and the "upside down" phenomenon are not significant, which shows that focusing on cyclic factors is appropriate. We find the conduction and "upside down" alternates, through two cycles respectively, and all reversed at the trough in the second cycle. There exist significant periodic intervals between conduction and "upside down". The reasons of PPI conducting to CPI before 2003 are investment expansion and seller market situation. After 2003, the reasons of "upside down" are investment expansion, lack of effective demand, buyer market situation, rising of food and housing prices and so on. According to characteristics of the current inflation, we propose different elements of price controls and monetary tightening, expecting to solve the long-term and deep-seated contradictions in the price.

Key words: PPI, CPI;Conduction, Upside Down;Seasonal Adjustment Model;Inflation