• 论文 •

### PPI与CPI关系及我国通货膨胀治理

• 出版日期:2011-09-15 发布日期:2011-09-19

### The Inflation Control and Relation between CPI and PPI in China

Gui Wenlin & Han Zhaozhou

• Online:2011-09-15 Published:2011-09-19

Abstract: The relationship between PPI and CPI is one of the hot issues in Macroeconomic research. Using TS seasonal adjustment model, fixed base PPI and CPI in Jan 1993-Jul 2010 are decomposed into trend, seasonal, irregular and cyclical factors. The trend, seasonal and irregular factors in the conduction and the "upside down" phenomenon are not significant, which shows that focusing on cyclic factors is appropriate. We find the conduction and "upside down" alternates, through two cycles respectively, and all reversed at the trough in the second cycle. There exist significant periodic intervals between conduction and "upside down". The reasons of PPI conducting to CPI before 2003 are investment expansion and seller market situation. After 2003, the reasons of "upside down" are investment expansion, lack of effective demand, buyer market situation, rising of food and housing prices and so on. According to characteristics of the current inflation, we propose different elements of price controls and monetary tightening, expecting to solve the long-term and deep-seated contradictions in the price.