关键词: 贫困脆弱性, 贫困动态, 贫困时段, 暂时贫困, 长期贫困

Abstract: Based on the logic analysis and systematic discussion of poverty vulnerability and poverty dynamics, taking key poverty-stricken counties in Liaoning province as sample data, researching methods such as cluster analysis, vulnerability analysis and sensitivity analysis are put into use to the empirical analysis of the distribution of county poverty and the degree of vulnerability. Also, from the dynamic point of view of poverty, a statistical analysis of poor households between 1997 and 2006 has been carried out as well as the frequency of incidence of poverty, poverty depth, and the time-spell distribution of poverty. Our study has found that different poor counties may have different degree of vulnerability, and the poverty caused by multiple factors displayed some type of distribution characteristics. To some extent, the poverty dynamics analysis can support for the result of the analysis of poverty vulnerability degree. The result from our poverty time-spell analysis shows some subtle differences from previous findings: the duration of poverty in our sample poor counties showing characteristics of both "temporary poor" and "chronic poverty" as double features, not a "single skewed distribution" found in the traditional analysis. Accordingly, really effective poverty relief policy should accurately locked in the chronic poverty and have differences and accordingly elastic, so that it was possible timely solve the problem of poverty at crucial stage.

Key words: Poverty Vulnerability, Poverty Dynamics, Poverty Time-spell, Temporary Poverty, Chronic Poverty