统计研究 ›› 2011, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (8): 28-33.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

原油价格、流动性与我国的通货膨胀

赵懿 李熠   

  • 出版日期:2011-08-15 发布日期:2011-08-08

Crude Oil Price, Liquidity and China’s Inflation

Zhao Yi & Li Yi   

  • Online:2011-08-15 Published:2011-08-08

摘要: 国际市场原油价格变动对我国通货膨胀具有一定影响的同时流动性过剩仍是一个不可忽视的问题。为了明确影响我国通货膨胀的因素,本文选择广义货币供应量,产出、国际原油价格和通货膨胀率等变量运用CVAR模型方法对影响我国通货膨胀的因素加以分析。经验分析结果表明:我国具有稳定货币需求关系和菲利普斯曲线;原油价格对我国通货膨胀具有长期影响,但是影响我国通货膨胀的更为重要的因素是流动性过剩和经济过热。

关键词: 原油价格, 流动性, 通货膨胀, CVAR

Abstract: The fluctuation of international crude oil price has some impacts on the inflation in China, and meanwhile the liquidity glut is a very important problem that cannot be neglected. This paper analyzes the influencing factors of China’s inflation by a CVAR model with variables, M2, output, international crude oil price and inflation rate. The results show that there exists a stable Monetary Demands Function and a Philips Curve in China. Crude oil price’s change has long term influence on China’s inflation, but the more important influence factors of inflation in China are liquidity glut and economic overheating.

Key words: Crude Oil Price, Liquidity, Inflation, CVAR