关键词: GDP数据修正, 经济周期, 实时数据, 区制转移模型

Abstract: On the collection of real time data of China’s quarterly GDP, this paper uses the regime-switching model to date business cycle in real time, and further discusses the effects of GDP data revision on business cycle phases and average economic growth rates. The results show that the GDP data revision causes the phases of business cycle to undergo profound changes, so that the regime of business cycle during the period 2005Q2 to 2006Q4 is changed from low growth to high growth. Moreover, we find that the change direction of GDP data revision to average growth rates is inversely correlated to whether the GDP data revision affects business cycle phases. That is, when the GDP data revision does not (or does) affect the phases of business cycle, it has the same (or opposite) direction of effects on high and low average growth rates.

Key words: GDP Data Revision, Business Cycle, Real Time Data, Regime Switching Model