统计研究 ›› 2011, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (7): 92-97.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

婚配概率及婚配对数估计方法的探讨

李芬等   

  • 出版日期:2011-07-15 发布日期:2011-07-04

Focus on the Estimation of Marriage Probability and Marriage Number

Li Fen et al.   

  • Online:2011-07-15 Published:2011-07-04

摘要: 估算独生子女和非独生子女之间婚配概率及婚配对数是生育政策仿真的关键技术之一。本文首次提出同龄概率法及多龄概率法,并对全国层面独生子女之间、独生子女与非独生子女之间、非独生子女之间的婚配概率及婚配对数进行了估算,详细阐述了两种方法的原理及运算步骤,并对两种方法的运算结果进行分析比较。结果表明,这两种方法都可以计算独生子女和非独生子女之间多种婚配概率,并能估算出各类婚配夫妇对数。其中,同龄概率法较直观,数据易取得, 但与实际存在一定的偏差;多龄概率法更接近于现实,受婚配对象人数突变的影响更小。

关键词: 同龄婚配概率, 多龄婚配概率, 生育政策, 政策仿真

Abstract: One key technique of birth policy simulation is to estimate marriage probability and marriage number between different policy subjects. We estimate marriage probability and marriage number among only-child and non-only-child by the method of the “same-age” marriage probability and the “multi-age” marriage probability on this paper. The principle and results of two methods are described and compared. The results show that marriage probability between different policy subjects can be drawn, and marriage number between different policy subjects can be simulated by means of both methods. The method of the “same-age” marriage probability has advantage of straightforwardness and easy access to data, but may result in deviation from reality. The method of the “multi-age” marriage probability is closer to reality and less affected by the accidental change of marriage number.

Key words: “Same-age&rdquo, Marriage Probability, “Multi-age&rdquo, Marriage probability, Birth Policy, Policy Simulation