统计研究 ›› 2011, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (4): 4-10.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

国际金融危机就业效应的投入产出分析

"中国2007年投入产出表分析应用"课题组   

  • 出版日期:2011-04-15 发布日期:2011-04-14

Input-output Analysis of the Impact of International Financial Crisis on Employment

Research Group of 2007 China Input-Output Table   

  • Online:2011-04-15 Published:2011-04-14

摘要: 本文分别利用2007年非竞争型投入占用产出模型和引入非线性因子的局部非线性投入产出模型,从受国际金融危机影响最为直接的出口、投资角度出发,测算了国际金融危机对我国就业的影响。测算结果显示:在最近一年金融危机对我国就业影响是逐步加剧的;重点行业影响较为集中;由于我国宏观调控政策的及时准确,刺激经济计划的有效实施在很大程度上抵消了金融危机的影响;同时,非线性就业弹性能够更准确的反应行业产值和就业人数之间的非线性关系,将其引入投入产出经典模型能使模型更好地反映真实经济情况。

关键词: 金融危机, 就业影响, 投入占用产出模型, 就业弹性, 局部非线性投入产出模型

Abstract: Using 2007 non-competitive Input-occupancy-output model and a non-linear input-output model based on the employment elasticity, this paper estimates the impact of international financial crisis on employment in China from the terms of export and investment. The results show that: in the past year,the employment impact of the financial crisis in China is gradually intensified and concentrated in some key industries; due to the appropriate and timely macro-control policies, the economic stimulus plans largely offset the impact of the financial crisis; Meanwhile, the non-linear employment elasticity can reflect non-linear relationship between output and employment more accurately, and we introduce this non-linear employment elasticity into input-output model which can reflect the real economic situation better.

Key words: Financial Crisis, Employment Effects, Input-occupancy-output Model, Employment Elasticity, Nonlinear Input-output Model Financial Crisis, Employment Effects, Input-occupancy-output Model, Employment Elasticity, Nonlinear Input-output Model