关键词: 外汇占款, 传导机制, 银行贷款渠道, SVAR模型

Abstract: The improvement of a country’s opening up will challenge the effectiveness of the country’s monetary policy, but how does this mechanism happen and conduct? Based on the theory of bank lending channel from credit view, this paper does a research on the effect from forex purchase on PBC’s constrictive monetary policy control since the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime on July 21, 2005. We applies time series analysis with a standard SVAR model and by a simple restriction, the structure innovation of forex purchase is identified, and then we use the impulse-response function, variance decomposition and cointegration to analyze the quantitive influence of forex purchase on PBC’s monetary policy control from money to credit in the transmission of monetary policy. We find that the expanding effect from forex purchase to money and credit persisted especially embodied in the elasticity from money base to credit. Thus due to the Ternary Paradox, the forex purchase caused by the external balance exert an influence on the effects of China’s monetary policy, which should be considered in the implementation process of monetary policy.

Key words: Forex Purchase, Transmission Mechanism；Bank Lending Channel, SVAR Model