统计研究 ›› 2011, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (4): 106-112.

• 论文 • 上一篇    

随机系数离散值时间序列模型

喻开志等   

  • 出版日期:2011-04-15 发布日期:2011-04-14

The Random Coefficient Discrete-Valued Time Series Model

Yu Kaizhi et al   

  • Online:2011-04-15 Published:2011-04-14

摘要: 本文建立了q阶随机系数整值滑动平均模型。研究发现:固定指标t,该过程服从泊松分布;求得该过程的期望、方差、协方差;证明了该过程是宽平稳过程,均值与协方差均是遍历的;得到了特殊情况下模型参数的矩法估计,该估计是相合估计。通过Monte Calro模拟来验证估计结量的优劣。

关键词: 打薄算子, 整数值滑动平均模型, 随机系数, 遍历性

Abstract: The qth-order random coefficient integer-valued moving average model is introduced in this paper. The results indicate that: Fixed index t, this process according to Poisson distribution; Mean, Variance and Covariance functions are obtained; Stationary of this processes are proved, Ergodicity of the mean and Covariance functions of this process is established; The consistent moments estimator of parameters are obtained in some special case. We provide some simulation results to test the performances of these estimators.

Key words: Thinning Operation, INMA Model, Random Coefficient, Ergodicity