统计研究 ›› 2011, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (3): 79-85.
北京市能源消费与经济增长关系研究
本文利用面板协整理论和基于面板误差修正模型的Granger因果关系检验分析了北京市能源消费和经济增长的关系。面板协整检验表明北京市能源消费和经济增长之间存在长期协整关系，进一步基于面板误差修正模型的Granger因果关系检验表明北京市短期存在能源消费到经济增长的单向因果关系，长期能源消费和经济增长之间存在双向的因果关系。因此北京市在进行节能减排的工作时，必须考虑到能源消费减少对经济增长的负作用，尽可能采取提高能源利用效率的措施，包括利用财政税收优惠政策鼓励节能技术的研发，在政府采购时要求产品在生产过程中采用节能技术，更关键也是更重要的是积极探索能源价格机制改革，通过价格手段促进企业真正具备节能意识，主动节约能源，提高利用效率。
Research on the Relationship Between Energy Consumption and Economic
This paper investigates the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Beijing using panel cointegration and Granger causal test with panel vector error correction (VEC) model. The panel cointegration test reveals the long equilibrium relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Beijing. The Granger causal test with panel VEC model reveals the short unidirectional causality from energy consumption to economic growth and the long bidirectional causality between energy consumption and economic growth. Thus when the “energy saving and emission reduction” are in work in Beijing, the negative effect on economic growth by energy reduction should be considered. More attention should be paid to how to increase the energy efficiency. The method includes encouraging the research of the energy saving technology through the favorable finance and tax policy, requiring government to purchase products with energy saving technology, and, more important, exploring the energy price mechanism reform to promote the awareness of energy saving so that companies really have the initiative to save energy and improve efficiency.
摘要： 本文利用面板协整理论和基于面板误差修正模型的Granger因果关系检验分析了北京市能源消费和经济增长的关系。面板协整检验表明北京市能源消费和经济增长之间存在长期协整关系，进一步基于面板误差修正模型的Granger因果关系检验表明北京市短期存在能源消费到经济增长的单向因果关系，长期能源消费和经济增长之间存在双向的因果关系。因此北京市在进行节能减排的工作时，必须考虑到能源消费减少对经济增长的负作用，尽可能采取提高能源利用效率的措施，包括利用财政税收优惠政策鼓励节能技术的研发，在政府采购时要求产品在生产过程中采用节能技术，更关键也是更重要的是积极探索能源价格机制改革，通过价格手段促进企业真正具备节能意识，主动节约能源，提高利用效率。