统计研究 ›› 2011, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (12): 77-82.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

强度效应、结构效应与中国电力消费之谜

林卫斌等   

  • 出版日期:2011-12-15 发布日期:2011-12-15

Intensity Effect, Structure Effect and the Mystery of Electricity Consumption in China:The Decomposition Analysis Based on 43 Specific Industries

  • Online:2011-12-15 Published:2011-12-15

摘要: 单位GDP用电量的变化是导致电力消费偏离经济增长的决定性因素。本文把国民经济细分为43个行业,运用对数平均指数法分解出2006-2009年电耗强度变化的结构效应与强度效应。结果表明:(1)总体上看,在电耗强度的变化中结构效应的比重不到30%,强度效应起主导作用,占70%以上。(2)各年间结构效应的绝对值都是负的,即产业结构的变化对于单位GDP用电量的下降具有积极的作用。(3)细分到具体行业,电力、钢铁、化工、有色金属和建材等高耗能产业的电耗强度和产值比重的变化对单位GDP用电量的变化起着主导作用。精确的分解分析不仅解释了中国电力消费之谜,对于节能减排政策也具有一定的启示作用:产业结构的调整是一个缓慢的循序渐进的过程,在短期内能耗强度下降的主导因素在于细分行业自身能耗强度下降,当前节能减排的重点和主要潜力在于提高细分行业的能源利用效率。

Abstract: The changes in power consumption per unit GDP is the decisive factor in causing power consumption to deviate from economic growth. This article segments national economy into 43 specific industries, and uses the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) to decompose the structure and intensity effects on changes in power consumption intensity from 2006 to 2009. The results show that: (1) in overall perspective, the structure effect on changes in power consumption intensity weighs less than 30%, while the intensity effect plays a leading role, accounting for more than 70%. (2) The absolute values of structure effects across years are all negative, namely industry structure changes play a positive part on the decline of electricity consumption per unit GDP. (3) Segmenting industries to high energy-consuming ones such as: electric power, steel, chemical, nonferrous metal and building materials, the changes in consumption intensity and of the proportion of output value played a dominant role on the change of power consumption per unit GDP. Accurate decomposition analysis not only unravels the mysteries of China’s power consumption, it also gives important inspirations to policies: the adjustment of industrial structure is a slow gradual process. In the short term, the dominant factors causing energy intensity to decline is the declination of self-consumption intensity in segmented industries. The current focus and main potential in energy saving and emission reduction is to improve the energy consumption efficiency in segmented industries.