统计研究 ›› 2011, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (10): 84-88.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

利用世代交叠模型对赡养经济中养老不确定性问题的理论研究

刘庆彬 郝胜龙   

  • 出版日期:2011-10-15 发布日期:2011-09-28

Theoretical Analysis on Uncertainty of Aging Issue in Gift Economy Based on OLG Model

Liu Qingbin & Hao Shenglong   

  • Online:2011-10-15 Published:2011-09-28

摘要: 本文基于儒教影响深远的亚洲国家,建立了一个离散时间的双向世代间转移的赡养经济模型。主体设为个人和政府,假设个人后代中存在利他性赡养老人和利己性不赡养老人两种情况的不确定性,并假设由政府提供完全保险。针对老年人赡养的不确定性问题,本文重点讨论在无保险和完全保险条件下个人的最优投资结构和国家经济体的最优增长方式。 对比研究表明:在无保险的情况下,赡养不确定性的存在使部分个人投资分流到次等的财产投资,导致总体投资效率下降,经济增长也受到负面影响。在引入政府保险的风险共担机制后,个人投资都集中在收益较高的后代教育投资,从而提高了总体投资效率,也促进了经济快速增长。 本文的研究结果,对分析研究当前中国出现的子女教育投资热现象、农村和城市家庭对子女教育投资 “一冷一热”的分化现象等社会问题,都具有较强的解释力和一定的现实意义。

关键词: 双向世代间转移, 利他性, 风险共担, 赡养经济

Abstract: This paper constructed an OLG model in discrete time to discuss the intergenerational transfers with the background of Asian countries which deeply influenced by Confucianism. This model includes two type subjects: the individual and a government. There is uncertainty of providing for the aged, because the offspring maybe altruism or egoism. In this model the government provides insurance. Focus on uncertainty of providing for the aged, this paper discusses the optimal investment structure of individual and the optimal growth of economy under the guarantee of insurance and without. Comparison study shows that some part of individual investment distributes to the property investment which is inefficient, concerning the uncertainty of providing for the aged and without the guarantee of insurance. And it causes the negative influence on economic growth. On contrast, if government provides the guarantee of insurance and setup the risk-sharing mechanism, the individual investment only concentrates on the investment of children’s education. Therefore, it increases the overall investment efficiency and benefits the economic growth. The study of this paper has the practical significance and it gives clear explanations of the education investment boom phenomena and the polarization of education investment between urban and rural areas in China.

Key words: Intergenerational Transfers, Altruism, Risk-sharing, Gift Economy