统计研究 ›› 2011, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (10): 54-59.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国改革开放政策有效性的定量研究

陈太明   

  • 出版日期:2011-10-15 发布日期:2011-09-28

An Empirical Study on China’s Reform and Opening-up Policy Effectiveness

Chen Taiming   

  • Online:2011-10-15 Published:2011-09-28

摘要: 1978年改革开放政策执行前后,中国经济发生了巨大的变化,居民的生活水平得到实质性提高。本文对Lucas模型进行扩展得到使用居民福利变动来量化政策有效性的理论模型,并基于中国1952-2007年的居民消费数据从波动和增长福利效应的视角分阶段定量研究改革开放政策的有效性。结果显示,从波动的福利效应视角来看,改革开放后第一阶段居民福利下降,第二阶段居民福利提高,总体而言居民福利收益相当于永久地每年给每一个居民21元;从增长的福利效应视角来看,第一阶段居民福利提高,第二阶段居民福利也提高,总体而言居民福利收益相当于永久地每年给每一个居民1503元。因此,无论是从波动还是从增长的福利效应视角来看,中国的改革开放政策都是非常有效的,进一步深化改革开放是继续有效提高居民福利水平的一个重要政策。

关键词: 改革开放, 政策有效性, 福利效应

Abstract: Since China’s Reform and Opening-up policy, the welfare level of Chinese people is much higher than before. Based on the revised version of Lucas (1987) model, the paper uses Chinese consumption data from 1952 to 2007 to empirically analyze Reform and Opening-up policy effectiveness. The major findings are as follows: From the perspective of volatility, welfare of consumer decreases in the first stage, increases in the second stage, and increases during the whole period. From the perspective of growth, welfare of consumer increases in the first stage and also in the second stage, so obviously increases during the whole period. Therefore, China’s Reform and Opening-up policy is extremely effective.

Key words: Reform and Opening-up, Policy Effectiveness, Welfare Effect