统计研究 ›› 2010, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (9): 65-72.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

工资与物价会螺旋波动吗?

丁守海

  

  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2010-09-15 发布日期:2010-09-15

Will Wage and Price Fluctuate Mutually?

Ding Shouhai   

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2010-09-15 Published:2010-09-15

摘要: VECM模型分析表明,我国工资与物价间存在明显的螺旋波动关系。将工资进一步分解为城镇劳动力工资和农民工工资后发现,这一螺旋关系是由城镇劳动力工资与物价之间的直接螺旋关系以及农民工工资与物价之间的间接螺旋关系组合而成的。城镇劳动力的工资波动会对物价构成直接压力,而农民工工资波动会通过城镇劳动力工资对物价构成间接压力。文章进一步从二元就业制度下劳动供给机制扭曲的角度分析了两类螺旋关系的原因。

关键词: 工资, 物价, 螺旋波动, VECM模型

Abstract:

Analysis based on VECM model proves that wage and price fluctuate mutually in China. After dividing wage into urban labors’ wage and migrant workers’ wage, we find that there exists direct spiral relationship between wage of urban labors and price, while there doesn’t exist in migrant workers’ situation. In other words, urban labors’ wage fluctuation will constitute direct pressure on price, while migrant workers’ wage fluctuation will constitute indirect pressure on price through the urban labor’s wage. Furthermore, we analyze the reasons for above spiral relations from the viewpoint of the distorted labor supply mechanism under the dual employment system in China.

Key words: Wage, Price, Spiral, Fluctuation, VECM